Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Prediction markets, trends and models

New NGDP numbers are going to come out soon (at the end of April) and so I've updated this prediction and put the Hypermind predictions (linked at Scott Sumner's blog) on my prediction. Lo and behold there really will be no way to distinguish among the prediction market (black line segments), the post-recession trend (solid red) the long term trend (dashed red) and the information equilibrium model (gray):


My view of prediction markets is here (they seem to only be asynchronous polls).

PS Scott Sumner says that the prediction market believes the Great Stagnation. Couldn't we say the market believes the information equilibrium model?

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