Wednesday, April 29, 2015

The new NGDP numbers are here ...

And the new GDP data is out! A pretty dismal performance ... but then the Atlanta Fed was saying Q1 seems to come in low these days (H/T to Cullen Roche who also had a good prediction), and in fact pretty much nailed the number with their GDPNow forecast.

I marked the Q1 numbers with blue dots on the prediction graph -- they do seem to have been systematically low since the financial crisis.

Overall: a continuing a trend of lukewarm economic performance, largely still in line with just about any model of the economy.

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