Saturday, February 20, 2016

IT model forecast update for Japan

Here is an update of the data versus the forecast models for Japan. I am uncertain about how the BoJ arrived at their numbers for the annual inflation rates, so I opted for a agnostic approach that estimated the annual inflation rate using a linear model and took standard errors (2-sigma). Here is the result for core CPI inflation as was shown here and also a longer term version:

And here is my traditional format (for the CPI level forecast):


  1. Your forecasts match my model forecasts: horizontal lines! Lol.

  2. I never know what to hope for in Japan's CPI numbers. On one hand, I want the BOJ to succeed, but, on the other, I don't want the market monetarists' complete failure to understand liquidity traps to go unpunished...


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