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Thursday, September 10, 2015

Black-Scholes and information equilibrium

Continuing from here [1]

Let's say the price of a stock option depends on the stock price and time Q=Q(p,t). If the price is our stochastic process from [1]

dpp=μdt+σdx


Ito's lemma tells us that

dQ=Qtdt+Qpdp+122Qp2dp2


with

dp2=σ2p2dx2


Now let's look at the 'portfolio' Q+αp, substitute dp2) and use the 'hedge' α=Q/p so that

d(Q+αp)=(Qt+12σ2p22Qp2)dt


That's where the stochastic bit proportional to dx fell out. And now there's a model assumption. Since the stochastic bit fell out, we assume the return of the portfolio must be the risk free rate r. That means

ddt(Q+αp)=r(Q+αp)=r(QpQp)


And substituting, we get the Black-Scholes equation:

Qt+rpQp+12σ2p22Qp2=rQ


That's just reiterating some stuff I found in vaious notes and appears to be a standard derivation.

So now some interesting (information equilibrium relevant) bits ...

From [1] we can show

σ2=1p2(px)2


So that

Qt+rpQp+12(px)22Qp2=rQ


And using the second order chain rule (and rearranging) we obtain ...

Qt+(rp122px2)Qp+122Qx2=rQ


This equation is now independent of κ and the supply and demand functions S and D. Which is interesting -- the price of an option no longer depends on anything other than the stochastic process the price follows. But wait, there's more.

Let's say our option and our stock price follow diffusion processes in volatility space (x):

Qt=2ξ2Qx2


pt=2ζ2px2


I chose the diffusion coefficients to appear as the do because it allows a simplification. Substituting those equations into our IT-Black-Scholes equation we get ...

(1+ξζ)Qt+pQprQ=0


Which is a first order partial differential equation with solution:

Q(p,t)=pf(t1+ξζrlogp)


Where f is an arbitrary function. Some observations ...

If p=expρt, then

Q(p,t)=pf(at)


which is an arbitrary function of t (a is a combination of the other constants). If ξ=ζ, i.e. the diffusion coefficients of the stock and option price are equal, we end up with the solution

Q(p,t)=pf(t1rlogp)


And if additionally p=expρt, then

Q(p,t)=pf(tρrt)


so if ρ=r

Q(p,t)p

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