I realized I forgot to apply the same adjustment to the error I applied here  to the result here . In the graph at the second link , I show the expected error in the monthly PCE inflation values -- but the FRB/US model is quarterly. So here is the same graph with the expected quarterly error:
This somewhat decreases the chance we'll fail to reject either model. The overall picture is that the Fed models (and predictions in  above) expect that the US economy will return to 2% PCE inflation, while the information transfer model predicts the economy will continue to undershoot that value.