The top three posts of 2015 were characterized by links from other sites.
3. The irony of Paul Romer's mathiness
This received a link from the Econ Job Rumors forum. The post was about Romer's mathematical gotcha that didn't make economic sense in the real world.
2. This analysis is so bad
Scott Sumner linked to my criticism of the analysis he presented and a flood of comments and pageviews followed.
1. Mark Thoma, information equilibrium is the model you're looking for
Mark Thoma linked to my response to his piece in The Fiscal Times where I say the information equilibrium model magically solves all his problems.
"Mark Thoma linked to my response to his piece in The Fiscal Times where I say the information equilibrium model magically solves all his problems."ReplyDelete
Do you have a link to that?
Glad to see you are back in the saddle- keep up the great work!ReplyDelete
O/T: Jason, I notice that Allan Gregory has added some forecasting posts since last I looked. Is that something you could go "head to head" with him on? I doubt it'd be super exciting at this stage, but here's a sample:ReplyDelete
"I predicted a 2.8% real GDP growth at annual rates and the actual was 2.3%. RBC, Scotia and TD all had 2.5% and were the closest among the Bank forecasts. Trevor Tombe (University of Calgary) tossed out a 1.4% last night and claimed a victory over me under the Price Is Right Rules (cannot go over). Stephen Gordon (Laval) was spot on with 2.3% done yesterday morning. Of course if you just had used the unconditional estimate (the sample mean) of 2.4% you would also have been a star! The surprising thing in my view today was the monthly release of the September number of -1.98% at annual rates for September 2015. This was not great and certainly dampened the quarterly number.
Just to get the ball rolling for 2015Q4, my initial forecast is -0.5%. Let the next recession talk begin."
It sounds like they're focused on very short term forecasts.
Also, have you heard of this? Do you suppose it's going to be a case of a bunch of people all armed with hammers looking for nails?