Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Time for a trip to Vancouver for a little fiscal stimulus ...

There was some reaction to the fall in the price of the Canadian dollar (e.g. here and here). According to the information transfer model, forex markets are basically highly volatile relative NGDP futures markets (even though they might not know it). This means we might expect a big fall [1] in Canada's NGDP when Q4 2015 and Q1 2016 data come out ...

Update 1 December 2016

Turns out to have been a good forecast.


[1] Or a big rise in US NGDP, but that seems questionable.


  1. Or if neither, markets are wrong and the Loonie/Dollar exchange rate will go up soon. Will be an interesting story to follow. Jason, where do you get the NGDP data from? In my limited searches it has always been presented as real GDP, taking into account inflation.

    1. Yes; it's important to point out the market could be wrong.

      On FRED, it is


      Current Price Gross Domestic Product in Canada

      Although that doesn't update as quickly as I would like (last June is the last data point), so I go to Canada's statistics for the latest data points


    2. There's also a factor of 4 difference between SAAR and SA for quarterly data.


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