Thursday, January 8, 2015

Two parameters vs twenty-nine (a prediction update)

Here's an update of the head-to-head with the NY Fed DSGE model; the information transfer model (ITM) is looking better every day month ...

The monthly data is essentially following the NY Fed's lower 90% contour, while it is almost inside the ITM's 70% contours. However it is important to remember these contours are for quarterly data. But! If the monthly data keeps this up for another quarter or two (and there aren't any revisions), we might be able to declare the ITM the winner early.

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